The Middle East teeters on the edge of escalating conflict as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares for a pivotal meeting with US President Donald Trump. This encounter, set for Monday evening at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort, comes amidst rising concerns that Israel might initiate new military campaigns against its regional adversaries, potentially destabilizing the already fragile region further.
Netanyahu's fifth visit to Trump this year couldn't be timelier. The ceasefire in Gaza, which ended a devastating two-year war in October, is a top priority. While the initial phase has been largely successful, with Israeli forces repositioning and Hamas releasing most hostages, the second phase of Trump's 20-point plan faces daunting challenges.
But here's where it gets controversial: Israel is rumored to be considering offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon, despite a year-old ceasefire, and Iran, which it accuses of ramping up ballistic missile production. These potential actions have global implications.
Gershon Baskin, a peace negotiator with Hamas, emphasizes the critical timing of Netanyahu's trip regarding Gaza. With Phase 1 essentially concluded, the focus shifts to Phase 2, which has been stalled. Baskin suggests that Hamas has used the time to strengthen its position, a scenario the US wants to avoid.
The Gaza conflict has been devastating, with over 70,000 Palestinian civilians killed and nearly the entire population of 2.3 million displaced. Despite the October ceasefire, Gaza's suffering continues, exacerbated by harsh weather conditions, with many still living in dire circumstances.
Trump's plan for Gaza includes replacing Hamas with a nonaligned Palestinian authority and deploying an international stabilization force. However, recent reports indicate that Netanyahu's actions may be undermining the ceasefire and peace process, frustrating US officials and analysts alike.
Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East expert, highlights the growing tension between the US and Netanyahu. With Phase 2 at a standstill, the question arises: What will the US do? Netanyahu's priority is to persuade Trump to let Israel curb Iran's nuclear and missile programs, which Iran is allegedly rebuilding post-war.
The Iranian president's declaration of a full-scale war with the US, Israel, and Europe adds fuel to the fire. Simultaneously, efforts to secure an Israel-Syria security agreement have stalled, and Israel seeks more robust action to disarm Hezbollah, as per the 2024 Lebanon ceasefire.
Netanyahu's political future is at stake, with elections looming in 10 months. Analysts suggest that a close relationship with Trump could bolster his appeal, making public disagreements between the leaders unlikely. Netanyahu aims to ensure Israel's military superiority, especially after Trump's decision to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, a move that alarmed Israeli officials.
And this is the part most people miss: As the world watches, the decisions made at Mar-a-Lago could shape the future of the Middle East. Will Trump's plan for Gaza succeed? Can Netanyahu's agenda be reconciled with US interests? The answers to these questions will have profound consequences for the region and beyond.
